CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-08-24T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17572/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T11:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T23:41Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 68.75%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -29505.23 hour(s)
Difference: -11.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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